Pre-Election Key Indicators

Figure 1: Evaluation of Government COVID-19 Response (2020-2021)

Figure 2: Comparison of Suga, Kishida and Abe’s Initial Cabinet Approval (Disapproval) Ratings

Figure 3: 2017 House of Representatives (HoR) Party of Hope Voters 2016 House of Councillors (HoC) Proportional Representation (PR) Vote (2017 UTokyo-Asahi Voter Survey).

Figure 4: Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Party Support: 2017 versus 2021

Figure 5: House of Representatives Proportional Representation (PR) Voting Intention (Monthly Average Various Media Agencies)

Figure 6: Who Would You Prefer to Gain More Seats at the Next House of Representatives Election?

(Average of Various Media Agency Surveys Leading up to Election)

Figure 7: Prime Minister ‘Premium’: Selected Dates 2001-2021

PM Premium calculated by adding difference between cabinet approval rate and party support rate and difference between cabinet disapproval rate and party support rate.

Figure 8: Majority Risk Index: Selected Dates 2001-2021

Majority Risk Index is found by adding net cabinet approval to the ruling party ‘offset’: the difference between the support rate for the ruling party and the main opposition party.

Figure 9: Continue Abe-Suga Policies? (October 2021 Surveys)

More Updated Election Indicators