Pendulum Districts 2012

From Asahi Shimbun

From Asahi Shimbun

According to the Asahi Shimbun (日), 145 SMDs went for the LDP/Komeito in 2005, DPJ in 2009, and then again for the LDP/Komeito in 2012 (what the Asahi terms the “pendulum phenomenon”). 71 one of them were in the urban metropolis of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama area. This is a very interesting bit of information that could prove useful for the next lower house general election if it is held under a similar system to the current one. If the LDP-Komeito relationship survives the Abe tenure, however long that may be, then in the next election there will be significant incentives for the JRP, a new centrist DPJ, and perhaps the YP to form alliances in these districts, particularly if the LDP disappoints in some way.

2 thoughts on “Pendulum Districts 2012

  1. Can’t figure it out from that snippet of an article, but are they really “going for” the LPD? As in, did the number of voters picking LDP substantially decrease last time, then increase again this time around? Or was this simply the same affect we se nationally, with LDP support staying constant while the non-LPD abandoned DPJ and split their votes this time around being the main difference from the previous election?

  2. What happened is that between 2005 (47%) and 2009 (38%) the LDP lost 9% support in the SMDs (with similar election turnout), but then gained back about 4% of that this time around, which put them at 43%, which was percentage they received in the more “normal” elections of 2000 and 2003 (which also had similarly crappy turnouts). But, as you are implying, given that 10 million less voted this time around they didn’t gain that 4% in terms of actual votes. So if you look at a few of these districts above the total votes that the LDP’s candidates received in many cases this time was less than what they received in 2009, and much less than in 2005. Nevertheless, as there is no STV system in place then it is impossible for us to know what the preferences are of those who did not vote for either the LDP or the DPJ. If there were less people competing in these districts then the LDP may well have captured more than 2009, although still probably less than 2005. So, in short, it is hard to generalize from the data.

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