Just to reinforce how Masuzoe’s creation of a new study group is probably timed about right, the Asahi has another opinion poll which shows the expected (but much smaller) decrease in support for the Hatoyama cabinet, and a continuing large number of undecided voters (up to 37 percent!). What is almost unbelievable (well in terms of conventional logic) is that if there was an election today for the HoC, despite the slide in support for the governing party, the main opposition party would lose more support compared to the previous opinion poll than the unpopular incumbent party. 32 percent of people would vote for the DPJ compared to 34 last time, while only 23 percent would vote compared to 27 percent last time. Undecideds up to 32 percent from 29.
To add, only 31 percent of people believe that the DPJ governing by itself after the next election would be a desirable thing. More so, 55 percent explicitly believe it would not be desirable.
Taken together, to me, living in a not altogether different electoral system, this suggests that the public are going to vote quite strategically (ie not necessarily in line with their direct electoral preference, but in terms of achieving the most practical desirable outcome) at the next election for a coalition government. It also suggests that someone needs to offer a coalition proposition that is clearly more palatable than the current one. Game on.